NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1827793502e84fda8c68229db764e24b63aae91d2e0ac0949cd85625c77b96d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,673 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 1c | 2,001$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.47 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Over | 72c | 1,478$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 1,294$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.79 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 16c | 1,000$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.88 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 24c | 661.52$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.26 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 21c | 599.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.33 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 24c | 479.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.54 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 4c | 312.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.18 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.71 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 5c | 219.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6399…0324backed Over | 77c | 151.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 15c | 76.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…97e1backed Over | 72c | 51.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…2608backed Over | 63c | 44.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 31.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Over | 45c | 27.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…8caebacked Over | 76c | 23.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.