MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182d6decdc1d01999425622c9d656f394887c17453d20d73f36eecb62c0f4e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 49c | 9,998$4,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.16 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 5,998$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7148…e85abacked Under | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 2,016$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.16 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 53c | 1,395$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.56 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…5cb1backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed Under | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 35c | 505.78$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.5 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Under | 66c | 454.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 360.14$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.68 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 270.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 53c | 139.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 53c | 105.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.