MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8324759bb31e0d6c117c8cacda92532699ec368d08505d0cef6780af2074b6e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked New York Mets | 47c | 2,935$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked New York Mets | 44c | 2,432$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.76 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed New York Mets | 47c | 1,781$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.09 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,131$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 1,104$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 54c | 1,072$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 1,012$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.36 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 1,006$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.17 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 846.58$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.09 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed New York Mets | 46c | 845.24$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.43 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 742.67$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.59 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 573.65$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.43 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 45c | 540.19$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed New York Mets | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 501.65$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 447$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.22 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 418.27$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 53c | 413.52$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed New York Mets | 42c | 381.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.51 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…7827backed New York Mets | 39c | 380.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 291.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 283.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed New York Mets | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.83 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Mets | 19c | 266.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed New York Mets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 72c | 205.73$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 177.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 166$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked New York Mets | 38c | 161.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a21…4aa9backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 110.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed New York Mets | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed New York Mets | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked New York Mets | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed New York Mets | 25c | 86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Mets | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Mets | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 81.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 76.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked New York Mets | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 63.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 45c | 61.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked New York Mets | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 58.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked New York Mets | 60c | 53.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 22c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed New York Mets | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 73c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 26.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 16.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.