MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x147dee79bbbd58b451b095a19862c8dbe041e099012669afb0cdf589a31cdf51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 12,000$6,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,715 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 11,598$5,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,480.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 3,893$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 50c | 2,981$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Over | 1c | 2,084$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,309$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 48c | 1,165$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.12 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 1,103$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 914.66$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 47c | 639.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 46c | 604.36$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.47 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 585$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 496.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 475.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.55 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 55c | 475.36$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 53c | 459.92$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.99 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 458.88$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Over | 47c | 301.85$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 52c | 288.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 47c | 210.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 56c | 205.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 159.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 51c | 120.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 74c | 114.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 41c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 49c | 97.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 29c | 76.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 61c | 57.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 39c | 46.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 51c | 36.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 33.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 64c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 53c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 54c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.