MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186eda4fe1f95b7b6fbe16cd9ce37d5cf8d9aa76faebe52667c12b08d9ba1cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 48c | 3,157$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.86 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 1,994$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,024$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 699.21$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 3c | 362.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 261.87$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 228.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 45c | 206.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 165.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 46c | 152.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 45c | 145.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 52c | 123.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 101.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 54c | 87.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 78c | 78.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 32.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 46c | 22.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 54c | 22.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.