MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296f2e3b9fbb807a07bce43fa6400f4dec0001fc147e696b51a82a7eeac26698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,082$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 1,039$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 890.49$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.39 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 680.53$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 487.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 228$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 217.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 131.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 114.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 83.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 82.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 78.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 75.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 73.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 66.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 60.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46c…6bc6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 40.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 36.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 29.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 28.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 28.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 28.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 27.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 23.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.