TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,083 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates29c2,000$580 inLost-$58029647.3%140 W · 156 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc185…7020backed St. Louis Cardinals71c801.67$569 inWon+$232.483860.5%23 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals71c519.58$369 inWon+$150.683,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Pittsburgh Pirates21c449$94 inLost-$94.2931038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0706…f25dbacked St. Louis Cardinals75c400$300 inWon+$1006669.7%46 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals71c336.69$239 inWon+$97.641,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals70c144$101 inWon+$43.28,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed St. Louis Cardinals71c125$89 inWon+$36.2523140.3%93 W · 138 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates25c97.04$25 inLost-$24.5912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed St. Louis Cardinals72c86.51$62 inWon+$24.343243.1%186 W · 246 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked St. Louis Cardinals71c58.23$41 inWon+$16.891,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed St. Louis Cardinals78c49.99$39 inWon+$10.7557346.9%269 W · 304 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked St. Louis Cardinals71c47$33 inWon+$13.631,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.