MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a776413d8ac39f41c3b94d57a92f24f93d78e5f0cb28b98b2f7050c3ae91ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 2,925$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 2,255$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.9 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 957.37$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.42 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 854$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 529.23$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 469.84$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.89 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 204.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 188.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 142.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 134.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 94.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 91.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 66.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 49.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 38.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 38.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 22.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 20.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 18.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 18.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 18.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.