Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186fa879a91ccaf9b56359c223effb5c517fa32b07522213b323e987be97fd68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yes | 5c | 5,037$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 4,855$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.29 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 2,190$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.44 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 71c | 1,845$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.94 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 72c | 1,099$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 733.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 27c | 599.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 587.32$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.69 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked No | 72c | 561.3$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Yes | 22c | 460.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 369.12$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 309.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 78c | 237.35$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 29c | 180.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 163.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 158.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 79c | 149.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 27c | 145.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 21c | 143.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 79c | 139.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 79c | 135.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…824ebacked Yes | 21c | 134.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0d…0d74backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…e33ebacked No | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…fdebbacked No | 72c | 95.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc03…89ccbacked No | 72c | 93.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc67…3020backed No | 72c | 93.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…f786backed No | 72c | 88.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 87.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…b729backed No | 72c | 86.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…f285backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd8…ec8dbacked No | 72c | 80.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…f5a8backed No | 72c | 79.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…3bc2backed No | 72c | 77.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…9937backed No | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…5e7cbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…56e1backed No | 72c | 73.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…5c69backed No | 72c | 72.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…69d8backed No | 72c | 70.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…4c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 61.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 77c | 59.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 80c | 51.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 21c | 47.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 41.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e0f5backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c8…819bbacked No | 72c | 33.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…4eb5backed No | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f4…2750backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked No | 73c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-01-09?Yes won
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.