Tennis · resolved market
ITF Lakewood: Iiro Vasa vs Aleksa Ciric
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a0c22c7009befca4e20d29b4c2780fd8db5e0a7c570deaa35408fbce1f2f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iiro Vasaof Iiro Vasa, Aleksa Ciric
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Aleksa Ciric | 33c | 8,120$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.95 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Iiro Vasa | 69c | 6,003$4,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.18 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iiro Vasa | 66c | 1,929$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.79 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Aleksa Ciric | 31c | 1,191$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.33 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Aleksa Ciric | 47c | 1,115$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Iiro Vasa | 70c | 710.21$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.94 | 277 | 53.4%148 W · 129 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Iiro Vasa | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Iiro Vasa | 68c | 493.17$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 248 | 56.9%141 W · 107 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Aleksa Ciric | 43c | 439.29$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 302 | 35.4%107 W · 195 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Iiro Vasa | 70c | 398.61$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Aleksa Ciric | 30c | 292.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aleksa Ciric | 31c | 257.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed Iiro Vasa | 65c | 246.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Iiro Vasa | 66c | 215.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed Iiro Vasa | 67c | 191.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Iiro Vasa | 59c | 128.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Iiro Vasa | 55c | 121$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Iiro Vasa | 56c | 112.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Iiro Vasa | 34c | 91.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Aleksa Ciric | 46c | 83.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Aleksa Ciric | 30c | 74.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Aleksa Ciric | 34c | 66.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Iiro Vasa | 67c | 57.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Aleksa Ciric | 35c | 51.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…a63ebacked Iiro Vasa | 63c | 49.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Iiro Vasa | 71c | 39.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Iiro Vasa | 71c | 39.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Iiro Vasa | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Aleksa Ciric | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Iiro Vasa | 60c | 33.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Iiro Vasa | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Iiro Vasa | 65c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.