CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a7ea53697c16620f250b4e17056e08c325d360a83e53731e6bf89428158107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof STATE, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 811.12$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed STATE | 78c | 729.47$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked STATE | 71c | 534.12$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 428.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.88 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 395$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked STATE | 74c | 328.18$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed STATE | 68c | 324$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked STATE | 71c | 278.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked STATE | 70c | 198.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked VP.Prodigy | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked VP.Prodigy | 30c | 118.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 110.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed VP.Prodigy | 30c | 86.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 84.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked VP.Prodigy | 28c | 80.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed STATE | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…fc9bbacked STATE | 72c | 67.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…b4e9backed STATE | 51c | 66.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked VP.Prodigy | 27c | 62.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed VP.Prodigy | 27c | 59.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked STATE | 67c | 58.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked VP.Prodigy | 23c | 50.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 752 | 45.3%341 W · 411 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed STATE | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed STATE | 73c | 49.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed STATE | 74c | 49.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 45.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 42.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ee…7d59backed STATE | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…e04fbacked STATE | 51c | 41.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed STATE | 71c | 36.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a856backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 36.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked STATE | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…7397backed STATE | 70c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…a9d3backed STATE | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked STATE | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked STATE | 73c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs VP.Prodigy - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs VP.Prodigy - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.