Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ac7c05e990bf49f331c18d18d9b8319043baa7a901147520c4ef1e1c27f4ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 450$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 388.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 62c | 280.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 243.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 54c | 225.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 220.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 188.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 172.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 171.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 138.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 133.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 55c | 101.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 48c | 88.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 61c | 60.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 48c | 55.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…1b2bbacked Yes | 60c | 49.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 45c | 45.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…2778backed No | 56c | 44.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 37c | 44.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 43.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 65c | 43.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 39.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 56c | 35.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 34.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 55c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 33.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 59c | 32.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 28.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 27.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 26.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…6c58backed Yes | 55c | 24.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 51c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 58c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 59c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 73c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.