NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c4268acd35268800be73227be84f1e4cf98ed03ef21936fe54e89ed957c200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 42,467$21,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,791.98 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 26,976$13,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,218.2 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 10,800$5,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,292 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 32c | 4,995$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.79 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 2,436$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.28 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,347$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.9 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 48c | 2,082$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.36 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 1,121$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.87 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,092$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Under | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…fdc8backed Over | 52c | 987.09$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…f0dcbacked Under | 48c | 981.81$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 49c | 820$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 51c | 721$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.21 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 255.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…7777backed Under | 50c | 244$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…94e3backed Over | 51c | 243.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 210.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 146.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21a…0d4abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Under | 52c | 47.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Under | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…deecbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5this page
- Giants vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 39.5Over won
- Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Giants won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.