NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05fbecf1f3e8b9c7e239a042b655443bc34984b6b80dcda98c67fb648a629e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Broncos, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Giants | 45c | 22,908$10,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,523.42 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Broncos | 55c | 21,851$11,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,924.09 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Broncos | 59c | 20,281$12,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,046.15 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Giants | 41c | 12,623$5,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,447.61 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Broncos | 60c | 8,078$4,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,806.71 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 40c | 7,300$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,377.51 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Giants | 41c | 5,936$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,502.05 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Giants | 40c | 3,259$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.32 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 47c | 1,475$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.25 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Broncos | 55c | 1,111$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Broncos | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…fe70backed Broncos | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Giants | 40c | 627.63$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.58 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Broncos | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Broncos | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Broncos | 59c | 206.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Broncos | 58c | 138.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Giants | 42c | 132.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Broncos | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants | 43c | 119.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Broncos | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Giants | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Broncos | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…2e92backed Giants | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…af17backed Broncos | 60c | 47.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Giants | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Broncos | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…796abacked Broncos | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Giants | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Broncos | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)this page
- Giants vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 39.5Over won
- Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5Over won
- Giants vs. Broncos: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.