MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ccfcccfea62ede1d04fdf2a0ac94e3db6ef93bb5a73d890a6891030db68f27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 65,871$34,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,103.07 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 48c | 50,000$23,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,002.89 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 49c | 18,495$9,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,432.24 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 6,759$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 5,289$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.02 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 4,033$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 46c | 3,943$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.8 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 50c | 3,101$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.73 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 2,941$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 2,431$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 2,282$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 53c | 1,090$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,057$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 51c | 1,039$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 47c | 1,025$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.15 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 49c | 964.29$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.79 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 836$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.72 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Under | 50c | 802.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 51c | 757.51$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.33 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 439.98$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 365.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 52c | 320.49$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 46c | 310.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 292.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 48c | 275.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 245.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 52c | 228.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 190.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 175.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 49c | 172$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 162$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 49c | 145.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 49c | 132.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 130.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 58c | 126.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 49c | 118.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 57c | 94.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…14d6backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 51c | 68.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa564…e6f3backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Over | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 49c | 36.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f793backed Under | 50c | 33.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 49c | 33.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…6939backed Under | 49c | 31.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 24.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 61c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 51c | 20.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.