MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b3fa07faf043c1c309ecbae2b7779efae20d99765a68466cd2a3077e523b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 4,239$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.68 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 3,383$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.56 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 1,860$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.75 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 1,213$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 1,041$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 883.07$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.44 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 782.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.74 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 678.87$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 647.53$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…ffa9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 625$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 510.73$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 447$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.14 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 430.51$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.03 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 377.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 377.29$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 7c | 370.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 296.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 259$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 246.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 130.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 127.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 114.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 80.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…8a2cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…695fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 60.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 60.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 51.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 49.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 49.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 45.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 42.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 41.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 34.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 33.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 26.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 24.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…39d8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca0…a4abbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.