MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ce8199f16cfdb7b1a0eddd4c94cd744ef0d554e6b3e0d6c5061bc33483c69a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 73c | 8,715$6,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,380.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 29c | 6,091$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,330.43 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kansas City Royals | 18c | 1,169$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.81 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 18c | 1,165$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.32 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 61c | 687.13$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.57 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 519$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.77 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 349.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 74c | 276$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked New York Mets | 73c | 179$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 133$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Kansas City Royals | 18c | 114.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…3315backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 85.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 50.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Mets | 74c | 31.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 62c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Mets | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked New York Mets | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 74c | 14.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 19.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 20.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 21.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 22.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.