MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaea0b3e041287d620ba5124f298ae86f2eb0686d71b356b3711df51de4e0628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 46c | 3,696$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.96 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 3,686$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.85 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…c969backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 51c | 783.47$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.57 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 51c | 580.26$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.94 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 49c | 507.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.99 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 450.97$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 12c | 354.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fe…97aebacked Under | 52c | 288$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 277.09$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 191.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 81.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 51c | 77.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 50c | 76.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 68.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Over | 49c | 34.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x887f…7289backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 19.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 20.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 21.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 22.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.