MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6868269f20ff13268d6a417726c156c381319eb7089eab1543a4fbdc1a135887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof New York Mets, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Kansas City Royals | 70c | 7,177$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.87 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 75c | 6,481$4,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.45 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 28c | 5,473$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.53 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 33c | 2,704$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.73 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 30c | 2,253$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 31c | 2,020$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.65 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets | 27c | 1,040$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.97 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 588.32$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.38 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 513.27$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 19c | 506$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 222.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked New York Mets | 40c | 204.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Mets | 35c | 201.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 187$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed New York Mets | 23c | 173.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets | 64c | 164.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 30c | 164.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 127.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 4,197 | 50.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed New York Mets | 40c | 117.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked New York Mets | 28c | 106.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 44c | 96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 93.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed New York Mets | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…e128backed New York Mets | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 41.2%156 W · 223 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 47.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 45.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 33.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed New York Mets | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Kansas City Royals | 73c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 926 | 69.5%644 W · 282 L | +94.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,494 | 63.4%947 W · 547 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Kansas City Royals | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 19.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 20.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 21.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 22.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.