College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18dc03db0dc5dca326cfcfb72e8331c161c1c614329ec332e75be0bea989992b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof Iowa State, BYU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed BYU | 50c | 15,565$7,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,833.99 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Iowa State | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Iowa State | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed BYU | 51c | 6,711$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,314.3 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State | 49c | 3,461$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed BYU | 49c | 2,138$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.38 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed BYU | 51c | 1,374$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.81 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Iowa State | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.81 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Iowa State | 49c | 906.85$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.45 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Iowa State | 49c | 848.39$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.71 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Iowa State | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked BYU | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Iowa State | 50c | 698$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.5 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Iowa State | 49c | 428.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Iowa State | 52c | 415.38$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Iowa State | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa State | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Iowa State | 52c | 196.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Iowa State | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Iowa State | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Iowa State | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked BYU | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed BYU | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Iowa State | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcd…651cbacked BYU | 49c | 54.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Iowa State | 55c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Iowa State | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Iowa State | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Iowa State | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Iowa State | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed BYU | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed BYU | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State (-2.5)this page
- BYU vs. Iowa StateBYU won
- BYU vs. Iowa State: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State (-3.5)BYU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.