NFL · resolved market
GB vs. PIT: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f74f7879eb24f75ff296e694e71c88c5ad1de7a849da2682837f67ea063eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 4,009$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.43 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 54c | 3,158$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 2,665$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.37 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 47c | 1,595$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.64 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Under | 53c | 1,156$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 758.99$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.14 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 648.39$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.77 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 512$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 43c | 450.94$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Under | 57c | 450.94$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 231.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 26.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 53c | 26.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Steelers won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 36.5Over won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 37.5Under won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 39.5Under won
- Packers vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: GB (-1.5)PIT won
- Spread: GB (-2.5)PIT won
- Spread: GB (-3.5)PIT won
- Spread: PIT (-1.5)PIT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.