NFL · resolved market
Spread: GB (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbafc60a76e4d3ffa51d5cf7bcd4a019bd7bd99c00062daed0f49a4ca8882710f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PITof GB, PIT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked GB | 54c | 97,130$52,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,436.15 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed PIT | 46c | 74,906$34,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,449.45 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed PIT | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed PIT | 46c | 4,218$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.26 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed PIT | 46c | 2,199$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…11a9backed PIT | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed PIT | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed PIT | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed PIT | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked PIT | 46c | 939$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed GB | 54c | 781$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.74 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PIT | 47c | 768$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.6 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked GB | 55c | 469.09$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed PIT | 46c | 299.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed GB | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked PIT | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed PIT | 46c | 108.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed PIT | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed GB | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed GB | 57c | 81.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked GB | 48c | 79.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed GB | 53c | 72.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed GB | 51c | 47.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked PIT | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed GB | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed PIT | 48c | 45.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed PIT | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked PIT | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PIT | 52c | 34.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed PIT | 52c | 34.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed PIT | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed GB | 52c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: GB (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Steelers won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 36.5Over won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 37.5Under won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 39.5Under won
- GB vs. PIT: O/U 40.5Under won
- Packers vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Packers vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Spread: GB (-1.5)PIT won
- Spread: GB (-3.5)PIT won
- Spread: PIT (-1.5)PIT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.