Fifa International · resolved market
Will Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x190968921a2105b312d12268b29d84d63ba48f684cdaf7351de67e45e59f2e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 46c | 1,228$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.66 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Yes | 54c | 770.34$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 37c | 493.63$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.63 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 71c | 428.72$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 425.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.22 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 47c | 406.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 70c | 340.11$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 42c | 332.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea95…4730backed Yes | 75c | 322.71$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 30c | 258$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.24 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed No | 16c | 225.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 70c | 214.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 25c | 207.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.58 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 34c | 197.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 28c | 154$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 245 | 37.1%91 W · 154 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 30c | 152.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Yes | 27c | 149.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 140.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 42c | 133.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 29c | 128.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 123.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Yes | 28c | 110.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 109.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…639abacked Yes | 49c | 103.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked No | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 14c | 86.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 31c | 82.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 27c | 80.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 49c | 79.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed Yes | 22c | 75.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 79c | 74.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 70c | 68.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 67c | 65.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…0faabacked Yes | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 31c | 58.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 42.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5865…696abacked Yes | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…2735backed Yes | 54c | 36.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 68c | 36.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…e00abacked No | 38c | 35.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 40c | 34.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 198 | 62.1%123 W · 75 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…c197backed Yes | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 71c | 29.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Yes | 74c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 55c | 24.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 57c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…61d1backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa08…b12dbacked Yes | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea end in a draw?this page
- Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-03-31?No won
- Will Madagascar win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.