Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic: Sloane Stephens vs Renata Zarazua
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x192cfa3235e2200e5c112806585189af7aa67b4ad67e7fa2fc9c08ff73cc4d9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zarazuaof Stephens, Zarazua
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Stephens | 1c | 3,517$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stephens | 25c | 3,324$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.56 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Zarazua | 57c | 3,082$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.16 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stephens | 9c | 2,652$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stephens | 10c | 1,973$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stephens | 38c | 1,857$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.52 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Stephens | 8c | 1,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Stephens | 12c | 1,195$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Zarazua | 69c | 1,057$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.67 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Stephens | 22c | 1,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Stephens | 20c | 991.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Stephens | 4c | 887$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Stephens | 16c | 855.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zarazua | 77c | 793.09$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.58 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Stephens | 46c | 623.17$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stephens | 27c | 606.79$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…bf12backed Zarazua | 72c | 566.89$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stephens | 8c | 484.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Zarazua | 78c | 374.61$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Stephens | 18c | 307.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…51f9backed Stephens | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Stephens | 21c | 274.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…aad2backed Stephens | 34c | 225.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Stephens | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zarazua | 76c | 210.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Zarazua | 72c | 205$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Stephens | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Stephens | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Zarazua | 63c | 146.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Zarazua | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Stephens | 44c | 108.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Zarazua | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a4…fcf2backed Stephens | 28c | 89.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…8696backed Stephens | 28c | 81.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Stephens | 13c | 80.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…e774backed Stephens | 19c | 78.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Stephens | 38c | 66.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…93f9backed Stephens | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Zarazua | 77c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Stephens | 39c | 38.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Zarazua | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Zarazua | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…526dbacked Zarazua | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Zarazua | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Zarazua | 80c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 242 | 74%179 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.