Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs strongboys - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19329b21ff57888d15f123c2d2940ccd55d122169335c6a679b1c34c6a53537c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ | 40c | 2,557$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.05 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed strongboys | 37c | 1,464$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.58 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed strongboys | 65c | 864.01$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.29 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked MOUZ | 61c | 849.81$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 75c | 837.04$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.32 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 63c | 835.17$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.48 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked strongboys | 75c | 726.93$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.21 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked strongboys | 33c | 598.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked strongboys | 30c | 575$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed strongboys | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ | 45c | 429.49$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.23 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked strongboys | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 72c | 278.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed strongboys | 30c | 245.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ | 59c | 240$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed MOUZ | 44c | 210.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed strongboys | 59c | 208.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MOUZ | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked strongboys | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked MOUZ | 62c | 150.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 62c | 148.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed strongboys | 20c | 148.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked MOUZ | 60c | 126.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…7750backed strongboys | 42c | 121.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed strongboys | 42c | 119.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked strongboys | 69c | 102.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked strongboys | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed strongboys | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…27d0backed strongboys | 75c | 79.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…7444backed strongboys | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…ad4abacked strongboys | 19c | 61.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed strongboys | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed MOUZ | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed strongboys | 41c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked MOUZ | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked strongboys | 73c | 41.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed MOUZ | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked strongboys | 43c | 36.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…229cbacked strongboys | 74c | 35.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed strongboys | 46c | 30.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed strongboys | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked MOUZ | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs strongboys - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.