Fifa International · resolved market
Will Spain beat Serbia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x194fb6a41a5b64baa3085bfbbca47608055634f92ad901474e8f92da062ddb7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5231…1f75backed Yes | 72c | 7,598$5,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 28c | 5,388$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.49 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 27c | 3,060$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.48 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 27c | 1,853$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.29 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…8d9ebacked No | 28c | 1,666$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…e24bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,568$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…0789backed No | 29c | 1,568$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…5795backed Yes | 73c | 1,470$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…ceebbacked No | 29c | 1,470$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed No | 28c | 1,037$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes | 74c | 602.74$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…bd03backed Yes | 73c | 575.16$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed No | 28c | 465.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 28c | 410.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…7945backed Yes | 73c | 398.22$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…153dbacked Yes | 73c | 377.08$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…7254backed Yes | 75c | 355.84$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Yes | 73c | 349.56$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 28c | 324.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…2cf2backed Yes | 73c | 288.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 74c | 238.03$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…84cbbacked Yes | 75c | 217.09$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fe…e0eabacked Yes | 74c | 186.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…b392backed Yes | 73c | 150.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…c068backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed Yes | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 73c | 119.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c06bbacked No | 28c | 109.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…0ababacked Yes | 74c | 106.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ca82backed Yes | 75c | 97.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…9da6backed Yes | 74c | 92.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…4894backed No | 27c | 83.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…0eecbacked Yes | 72c | 71.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fd…5ca7backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…6770backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…0633backed No | 28c | 65.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…dc17backed Yes | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…efccbacked Yes | 75c | 60.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…2351backed Yes | 73c | 56.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…8577backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…c23fbacked No | 29c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…7982backed Yes | 73c | 43.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 72c | 38.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…3b87backed Yes | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…5e49backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…70d6backed Yes | 71c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…97f6backed Yes | 72c | 26.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…fef2backed Yes | 73c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…cc32backed Yes | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…975abacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…6857backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…c8aebacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe404…f3ccbacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain beat Serbia?this page
- Will Serbia beat Spain?No won
- Will the match between Spain and Serbia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.