Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b7552760264c4bff8ec9e26e19cba19ff67b845a9f7a65d9102c9ebef05fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 40c | 1,123$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.25 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 941.05$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.46 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 31c | 615.45$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.74 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 58c | 612.9$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.12 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 35c | 411.86$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Yes | 26c | 331.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 17c | 329.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 76c | 310.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 284.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 267.66$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 41c | 235.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Yes | 74c | 211.83$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Yes | 28c | 171.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 7c | 161.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 133.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 105.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84e…c131backed Yes | 47c | 103.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 98.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 95.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…6ce4backed Yes | 79c | 81.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 52c | 66.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 58.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 56.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 37c | 29.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 75c | 27.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.