Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6589bd21d9da4ccb3c21a6f6d34f60190fec5301152ae2c9dfe6827b3bead0d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 47c | 4,171$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.42 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 3,284$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 858.46$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked No | 45c | 808.53$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.18 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 796.72$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 53c | 754.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.71 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 55c | 698.16$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.24 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 27c | 678.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 31c | 599.94$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 54c | 454.52$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.08 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 73c | 406.6$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.06 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 73c | 404.3$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.14 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 16c | 284.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 24c | 273.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…e299backed Yes | 54c | 269.95$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 69c | 259.54$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 56c | 208.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 52c | 197.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 65c | 187.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Yes | 47c | 185.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 179.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.98 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 146.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 144.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 52c | 138.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 48c | 138.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 56c | 128.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 29c | 111.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 34c | 111.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 110.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 53c | 110.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 65c | 93.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 48c | 87.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 47c | 85.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 24c | 72.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked No | 59c | 69.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 56c | 67.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 64.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a6eabacked Yes | 47c | 62.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Yes | 48c | 57.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Yes | 48c | 51.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 49.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Yes | 48c | 48.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 31c | 40.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 49c | 39.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 47c | 37.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 43c | 33.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 60c | 30.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 46c | 30.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 44c | 27.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 70c | 26.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked No | 69c | 22.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 51c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…32e8backed Yes | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 64c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 76c | 14.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-19?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.