Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f306cb3719d2747029be155b9612b43988a84a98f219fa94831749a06bee1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 34c | 1,176$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.47 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 1,175$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.84 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 855.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 27c | 683.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.95 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 613.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 8c | 604$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Yes | 34c | 254.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 202.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 158.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Yes | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Yes | 20c | 137.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 30c | 118.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 29c | 99.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 69c | 91.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 31c | 78.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 35c | 76.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 29c | 73.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 69c | 55.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 28c | 50.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 69c | 48.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 30c | 47.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Yes | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 69c | 41.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…0433backed Yes | 63c | 40.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…42d1backed Yes | 31c | 36.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 34.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 72c | 34.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 70c | 29.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 70c | 27.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 71c | 25.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 80c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 70c | 22.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed No | 67c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed No | 70c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 66c | 16.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 70c | 16.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 70c | 16.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-19?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.