Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ca9b8aecceba88830a9993964560b5319a8c869ef623d5b634bbcd1d93f77e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb94…6194backed No | 1c | 6,327$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 78c | 460.07$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 326.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 22c | 229.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 71c | 208.7$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 71c | 131.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 12c | 119.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 108.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 100.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 92.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 52c | 86.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 77.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 71c | 76.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 68c | 72.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed No | 21c | 68.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 74c | 68.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 75c | 68.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 58.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 27c | 47.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 71c | 46.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 74c | 45.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 31c | 45.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…1ba0backed No | 25c | 41.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 25c | 41.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…b493backed No | 48c | 36.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 75c | 35.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 75c | 31.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 76c | 30.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 79c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 77c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 71c | 24.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 46c | 22.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 75c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 74c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.