Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19cd1efd656af445b40c35d9bd28055cfff19c67da5f70bc71e452837e0e23d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 2,482$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 51c | 1,216$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.93 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 36c | 1,058$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.55 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…9babbacked Yes | 25c | 801.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 51c | 551.01$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 51c | 518.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.3 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Yes | 31c | 486.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 8c | 462.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Yes | 31c | 323.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.55 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 48c | 201$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 47c | 179.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 40c | 159.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…1107backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 50c | 114.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 53c | 94.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 53c | 87.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Yes | 44c | 60.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Yes | 50c | 49.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 51c | 48.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 67c | 24.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked No | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.