Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee38b384de01c8c74ca029b4c2447fef46cecf1bd64f0b216996efb027e5ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 3,873$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 71c | 2,115$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.35 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Over | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 1,214$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 28c | 1,208$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.32 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 1,105$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 696.85$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 37c | 675$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 39c | 639.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 4c | 303.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c03…70d1backed Over | 75c | 188.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 71c | 160$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 152.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 63c | 91.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 69c | 56.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 66c | 53.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 31c | 41.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Over | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Over | 57c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 72c | 24.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.