Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2c6ae79b33f366a706b257a84bca77e5b2e3c26dd67a0ab431ab2bdaf7e824

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,531 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	13,452$7,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,545.53	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2795…fd6bbacked Over	44c	8,000$3,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,479.99	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	56c	4,201$2,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,338.71	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under	54c	3,251$1,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,755.38	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…d35fbacked Over	59c	3,000$1,770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,229.99	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	44c	2,440$1,074 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,366.4	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Under	55c	2,382$1,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,310	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78bf…7300backed Under	2c	1,911$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.11	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Under	55c	1,818$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	54c	1,433$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.79	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over	44c	1,332$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$745.82	98	56.1%55 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a73…1660backed Over	46c	1,270$584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$685.57	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under	51c	1,127$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570	380	55.8%212 W · 168 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over	45c	1,110$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.5	128	61.7%79 W · 49 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Over	34c	1,092$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.66	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-8.7wins	-0.10per pick	31cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…6ba6backed Over	57c	965.42$551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.42	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over	42c	926.19$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$537.19	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under	55c	909.07$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.99	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over	14c	900$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$774	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	45c	888.89$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.89	187	59.4%111 W · 76 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	54c	799.99$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435	358	56.4%202 W · 156 L	+19.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Over	41c	700$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.71	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	56c	521.33$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.27	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over	45c	499.96$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.98	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over	46c	498.91$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.41	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	45c	382.99$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.64	131	42%55 W · 76 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Over	42c	360$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.8	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over	31c	322.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.58	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+22%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Over	60c	250$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	58	60.3%35 W · 23 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over	42c	238.12$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.12	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over	16c	234.05$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.39	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	+6.3wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	58c	218$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.49	341	44.6%152 W · 189 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	52c	211.54$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.54	142	60.6%86 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Over	53c	205.26$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…997ebacked Over	38c	200$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	40cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over	19c	179.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.39	91	23.1%21 W · 70 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	46c	176.09$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.09	120	69.2%83 W · 37 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x373b…1107backed Over	44c	150$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	44c	135.82$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Under	61c	134.58$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	46c	130.43$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.43	221	57%126 W · 95 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Over	43c	115$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.55	66	60.6%40 W · 26 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	118	57.6%68 W · 50 L	+15.7wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	209	57.4%120 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	24c	106.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.62	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under	46c	104.23$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	201	53.7%108 W · 93 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed Over	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	56c	89.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	373	44.5%166 W · 207 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	60c	83.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under	17c	82.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd265…a7ecbacked Under	56c	77.5$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over	43c	76.97$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.87	115	40.9%47 W · 68 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under	55c	67.57$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.16	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over	45c	66.89$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.89	110	60%66 W · 44 L	+13.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under	50c	55.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	306	47.1%144 W · 162 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Under	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Under	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b4…c2f1backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	121	62.8%76 W · 45 L	+15.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under	43c	49$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	71c	48.17$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	381	51.4%196 W · 185 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	205	40%82 W · 123 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ba…e7eebacked Over	46c	42.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.14	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	69cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf1…23c6backed Over	42c	41.88$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.29	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-31%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Over	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+51.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	43c	33.67$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.19	817	32.8%268 W · 549 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	43c	33.41$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.21	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	58c	30.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	1,305	40.8%532 W · 773 L	-42.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	41c	29.73$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.46	1,083	50.8%550 W · 533 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33ca…5267backed Over	74c	28.55$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under	55c	23.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc989…ad9fbacked Under	57c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95dc…4b45backed Under	60c	19.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5this page
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event