MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19dcfc51432c1f07e14af088bebfef19ce612a17e56468c0c3aac77c51722a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 3,426$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 205.81$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 171.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 151.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 8c | 127.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 94.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 80.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 73.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 69.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 61.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 50.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 49.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 42.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 26c | 40.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 40.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 35.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 23.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 266 | 18.4%49 W · 217 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.