MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258c964aeca72a7bfeaf0867b73c56d909e10adb021f7c426827d16d70a4f739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 5,542$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 3,435$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 1,029$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 34c | 538.29$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 70c | 374$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 261$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Under | 72c | 249.21$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 205.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 195.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 49c | 154.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 62c | 122.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 49c | 121.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 49c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…cbffbacked Under | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 9c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 12c | 113.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 109.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 23c | 102.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 49c | 98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 93.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 53c | 93.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Over | 44c | 42.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 30c | 39.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 70c | 24.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.