MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c1ce3ede4d36ece5b73c0bf54ae5dbb01f35182da20960394d9c36b841bc9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 8,386$3,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,528.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 54c | 2,656$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.06 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 21c | 1,667$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,569$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,417$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 1,252$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 950.48$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 736.52$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36e…12d8backed Over | 55c | 382.33$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 303.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 191.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…ed44backed Over | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 61c | 177.63$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 150.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 145.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 110.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 15c | 98.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 44c | 78.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 60.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 49.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Under | 53c | 39.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 36.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 46c | 31.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 61c | 18.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…c7e6backed Under | 67c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 63c | 16.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.