World Politics · resolved market
Trudeau out in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a05d87b40023e148287b5b8075fc33c1496e486fda81265494554115814c4a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9734…9422backed No | 1c | 29,976$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 3c | 20,263$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.4 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…727cbacked No | 5c | 10,066$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 9,351$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 1c | 8,863$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 3c | 8,765$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.19 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 0c | 6,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 4,902$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 0c | 4,315$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed No | 0c | 4,095$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…f7edbacked No | 1c | 3,494$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 3,109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 2,258$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 2,151$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 1c | 1,717$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…80c6backed No | 1c | 1,557$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 1,458$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 3c | 1,439$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 1c | 1,116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 2c | 1,111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed No | 6c | 846.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…d9a5backed No | 1c | 752.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…4036backed No | 6c | 673.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 4c | 664.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed No | 5c | 413.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 4c | 269.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.