Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a26223c6205b9dd7d292f311b1d5be942bf86c4db499e6e00ad90bdc29e5344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide United FCof Auckland FC, Adelaide United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Auckland FC | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Adelaide United FC | 68c | 923.07$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Adelaide United FC | 70c | 157.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Auckland FC | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Auckland FC | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed Auckland FC | 34c | 58.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Adelaide United FC | 78c | 51.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed Adelaide United FC | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Adelaide United FC | 63c | 47.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)this page
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.