Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f48e55dd209c76792b74e4e188ba465b99eb848de757d6c59e3932682622b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 2,249$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.74 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 73c | 1,378$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea0…8d74backed Under | 21c | 966.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 79c | 909.57$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.01 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 78c | 849.65$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 21c | 769.14$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 29c | 660.15$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 78c | 638.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 21c | 635.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620f…4288backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 21c | 349$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 68c | 291.37$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 80c | 283.97$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 79c | 217.78$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 21c | 158.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 28c | 139.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfd…5277backed Under | 21c | 129.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 78c | 111.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 28c | 105.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 20c | 87.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 79.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…8fbfbacked Over | 80c | 63.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 55.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 52.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 79c | 45.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 79c | 30.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 69c | 28.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 80c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 70c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 77c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 79c | 17.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.