Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x784cb5045fc6dc3e8dafc569cbfd58cb19c6a9bd1eadf78d0370e7980815cd4f

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under	40c	6,830$2,752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,077.68	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+45%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	49c	2,874$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.93	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	70c	2,498$1,758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$740.44	309	54.7%169 W · 140 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	58c	1,535$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$647.03	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	55c	1,475$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.66	106	33%35 W · 71 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	46c	1,413$652 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$761.25	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over	46c	1,282$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.68	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	48c	1,243$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.7	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	45c	1,186$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538	81	29.6%24 W · 57 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed Over	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	44c	987.99$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$548.78	437	48.3%211 W · 226 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Over	50c	985.75$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.64	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over	57c	701.75$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under	44c	697.35$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.19	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over	44c	683.38$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+4.7wins	+0.14per pick	39cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Under	46c	654.62$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.22	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	51c	636.91$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	30c	633.6$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Over	59c	628.2$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under	43c	626.74$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.24	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Over	55c	608.2$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.51	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe10a…7ee7backed Over	46c	509.98$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Over	56c	500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5c4…9a90backed Over	47c	499.99$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	55c	499.99$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.99	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87bb…42b0backed Over	57c	476.04$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	45c	444.09$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.25	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c74…0d16backed Over	49c	405$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.4	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	56c	400.31$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.15	135	51.1%69 W · 66 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde28…8d20backed Over	9c	365.89$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd119…28abbacked Over	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Over	55c	320$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	57c	300$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	45c	299.1$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.51	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe77…8166backed Under	51c	290.05$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Under	48c	232.49$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under	39c	211.42$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.08	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Under	49c	204.18$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.18	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+4.0wins	+0.36per pick	37cpaid	+85.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce4…da39backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	52c	197.76$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.74	198	49%97 W · 101 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	46c	175$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.28	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	41c	170.96$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.34	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4e…12aebacked Over	38c	150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.64	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e4e…2564backed Under	41c	122.07$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	41c	122.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.45	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Over	45c	111.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	39c	103.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	47c	103.14$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.63	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	135	40.7%55 W · 80 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc9c…1293backed Over	31c	98.68$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	44c	95.98$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.43	22	50%11 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda39…1865backed Over	57c	90$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over	44c	90$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.86	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over	55c	86.36$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.28	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over	40c	70$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under	50c	67.78$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.63	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+17%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over	30c	66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	77	39%30 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	44c	61.26$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.69	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Over	49c	55.1$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+4.3wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	29c	54$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	108	39.8%43 W · 65 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	50c	48.55$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.41	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9055…8fbfbacked Over	56c	44.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36a…ae58backed Under	59c	43.87$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.79	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+49.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…ba56backed Over	51c	39.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	63cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…1d41backed Over	54c	38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ed…026abacked Over	51c	36.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-6.3wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Over	49c	32.76$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…fdc0backed Over	38c	31.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Over	58c	26.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed Under	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x403a…3173backed Under	57c	22.7$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.76	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	49c	20.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-32%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	57c	20.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+24%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-3.5wins	-0.27per pick	65cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under	57c	19.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event