Australian A League · resolved market
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42d950f0213270fb1637d5c493408568e84eb21bb303d8ff03df5a548538e4e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 21c | 1,950$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,831$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.1 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 71c | 1,272$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.38 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 1,100$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 27c | 926.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 34c | 818.54$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.3 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 23c | 797.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Under | 79c | 750.22$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 20c | 647.74$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 72c | 620.63$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 21c | 562.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 71c | 465.24$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 16c | 455.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…4252backed Over | 35c | 391.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 34c | 331.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 4c | 313.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 66c | 292.24$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 67c | 277.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Over | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 19c | 247$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Over | 35c | 201.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 68c | 182.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 15c | 131.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked Under | 69c | 111$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 33c | 108.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 16c | 104.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 104.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 66c | 62.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 66c | 48.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 67c | 41.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 67c | 34.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 67c | 34.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 35c | 30.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 67c | 30.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 67c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.