MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a276ba022c0a1a113215c48c1242ce088ecc35f263d6035b014ca54c9150556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…d41cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 7,918$5,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,272.03 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Detroit Tigers | 40c | 5,657$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,397.39 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 5,603$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,737.23 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…ecadbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 3,654$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.15 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 857.33$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.82 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 854.63$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.05 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 430.32$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.98 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 398.77$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 388.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.7 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 290.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 261.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 250.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.55 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 205.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 144.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…8279backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 98.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 93.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 91.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 87.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 84.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 56.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 43.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 42.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 39.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Detroit Tigers | 42c | 30.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 29.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 18.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.