MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9c3454e2b976287d1f7d06093ee1a9613112300372ab2f2ce8f330ff9c5c1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 11,811$6,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,202.18 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 5,277$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.47 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 46c | 4,867$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.8 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Under | 56c | 2,086$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 43c | 2,081$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.96 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 2,080$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.81 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 1,833$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.54 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 57c | 1,555$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.65 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…9d33backed Over | 46c | 1,332$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 1,279$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.16 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 54c | 1,271$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.59 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 54c | 900.37$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.17 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 711.9$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 46c | 644.85$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.63 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 642.41$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.51 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 587.54$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.27 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 47c | 564.83$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.47 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 515$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…0d11backed Under | 54c | 511.43$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 377.25$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 44c | 370$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 356.63$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 138.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 46c | 120.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 55c | 88.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Under | 54c | 86.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 78.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 54c | 77.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 43c | 49.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 46c | 45.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 46c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 70c | 24.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 55c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.