MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f83b5b1539afb2497b19e4f4116f5fabc99de3084ba2638a6fc7605e23a5b07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 46c | 5,338$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.2 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Over | 54c | 4,600$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,616$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.8 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 54c | 2,865$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.01 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 2,291$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.65 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Over | 52c | 2,092$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.74 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 52c | 1,879$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.83 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 55c | 1,592$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.7 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 46c | 1,571$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.53 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 1,442$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.17 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 1,369$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.45 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 1,324$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.96 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 995.02$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.29 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 46c | 935$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 48c | 643.18$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.46 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 42c | 621.73$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 53c | 601.14$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 38c | 487.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.98 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263e…5133backed Under | 68c | 392.32$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Under | 46c | 315.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 309.15$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 46c | 290.28$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 55c | 285.81$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 53c | 263.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 251.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 48c | 240.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 49c | 227.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 52c | 202.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 54c | 180.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 56c | 180.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 52c | 168.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 55c | 139.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 48c | 118.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 33c | 60.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 56c | 50.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…6c18backed Over | 55c | 47.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Over | 54c | 47.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…08f3backed Over | 54c | 47.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 52c | 45.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 52c | 45.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 51c | 41.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 51c | 40.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 37.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Over | 54c | 34.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…0ad8backed Over | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 54c | 29.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 25.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 48c | 24.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 23.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 66c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…8fb0backed Over | 55c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.