MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a3472291ebfcc4c7e6d4cb45cf43eab73f3675b165e0bfeae911ce9d7b910df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 2,926$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,297$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 42c | 1,078$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 32c | 648.35$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 608.14$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 510$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 51c | 500.08$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.04 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 430.25$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 238.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 179.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 137$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Under | 50c | 94.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 87.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 36.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 47c | 36.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 34c | 32.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Under | 51c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…4c76backed Under | 50c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…7564backed Under | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.