MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb184bf7b1cde84256280cd56bcebca737c7ef82752479bfe2b5dde0e06e59f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 1,279$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 33c | 1,064$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.88 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 55c | 1,055$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.27 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 752.9$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 697.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.65 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 594.46$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 553.95$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 500.84$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 482$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 449.23$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 55c | 434.58$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.97 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…9453backed Over | 46c | 362$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 46c | 301.96$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 44c | 299.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 284$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.36 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Over | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 39c | 219$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 180.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 57c | 173.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 37c | 128.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 109.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 106.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked Under | 56c | 101.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 70.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 58c | 61.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 60.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 58.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 48.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 67c | 44.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Over | 56c | 43.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 42.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 60c | 41.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 44c | 40.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 38c | 40.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Over | 53c | 34.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 59c | 21.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Under | 62c | 16.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.