Dota2 · resolved market
OG vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6117dd2ae519f316d2cc235a3df1e9d5c4e65c8c2a9452835f9744b2bb775e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 54c | 193.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 55c | 164.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 157.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked No | 55c | 125.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 118.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 55c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 40c | 74.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Yes | 46c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ab…95f6backed Yes | 50c | 60.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 53c | 32.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 45c | 30.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OG vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?this page
- OG to win 2-0?No won
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.