Dota2 · resolved market
Virtus.pro to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44f8200e81a12aad244c3f7338492a946308b10ee1ea59d43966fe8e172d9490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yes | 28c | 3,550$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.06 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 69c | 2,173$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.57 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 73c | 2,123$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.74 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 24c | 2,096$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.41 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,952$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.68 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 70c | 668.63$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.48 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…d042backed Yes | 68c | 439.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 57c | 389.8$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Yes | 52c | 360$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 73c | 337.74$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.62 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 43c | 337.05$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed Yes | 58c | 314.94$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.27 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 42c | 309.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed No | 69c | 304.55$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.14 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Yes | 31c | 280$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 265.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 52c | 212$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Yes | 46c | 182.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…82b5backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No | 52c | 174.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 158.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…af07backed Yes | 26c | 154.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked No | 34c | 144.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 51c | 131.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed No | 48c | 124.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 36c | 108.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 54c | 103.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 24c | 102.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked No | 30c | 101.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 14c | 97.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…1347backed No | 76c | 97.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 95.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 61c | 89.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 85.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 60c | 79.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 30c | 74.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked No | 27c | 65.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…e6c9backed Yes | 46c | 64.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 41c | 57.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed No | 20c | 56.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…5fa9backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 60c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 38.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 56c | 34.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 56c | 33.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Yes | 61c | 33.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 74c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?this page
- OG to win 2-0?No won
- OG vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.