Dota2 · resolved market
OG to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69ba721c8c51dfb3f715f873ad5002793dc36c1206ee781eaeded47eda16e58c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 60c | 2,166$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…e2c4backed Yes | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,118$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.69 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 62c | 956.16$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.06 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 61c | 778.66$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.34 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…71a1backed Yes | 39c | 769.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…1660backed Yes | 40c | 747.16$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked No | 79c | 378$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked No | 69c | 358.95$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…7f01backed Yes | 31c | 294.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 69c | 262.47$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 22c | 225.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 69c | 199.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 30c | 187.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yes | 21c | 178.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…0042backed Yes | 31c | 127.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Yes | 32c | 121.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed Yes | 31c | 121.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 21c | 117.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 31c | 108.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 24c | 100.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ab…95f6backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0d…9a70backed Yes | 31c | 93.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Yes | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 32c | 71.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Yes | 30c | 66.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 76c | 62.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 61.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Yes | 33c | 56.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 76c | 53.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…1b02backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 32c | 39.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 38.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed No | 61c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 76c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OG to win 2-0?this page
- OG vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.