World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7573848277f09f0792d2b0d1c6f6c8a31bf9dc657a5c1a56e251054c8f8e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 10c | 11,719$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.62 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…7eb5backed No | 5c | 3,561$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed No | 7c | 3,433$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…970bbacked No | 7c | 3,070$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 7c | 1,944$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.05 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 9c | 1,254$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 5c | 1,212$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 5c | 1,083$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 9c | 985.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked No | 8c | 968.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 7c | 757.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 534.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 7c | 474.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 7c | 171.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 7c | 165.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 151.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…e83ebacked No | 10c | 142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.